Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.425089 2.583984 2.752900 2.946677 3.163887 3.401103 3.681480
2025-08-03 2.181241 2.395966 2.636281 2.928079 3.276895 3.685950 4.210437
2025-08-10 2.021741 2.265940 2.548875 2.906337 3.354123 3.908516 4.667497
2025-08-17 1.895694 2.156782 2.467298 2.871856 3.397939 4.079184 5.066279
2025-08-24 1.793282 2.065009 2.395105 2.836273 3.428473 4.226083 5.443077
2025-08-31 1.723760 2.007057 2.358041 2.838545 3.503617 4.435011 5.933862
2025-09-07 1.670659 1.965095 2.336575 2.856778 3.598321 4.677615 6.512089
2025-09-14 1.599176 1.894911 2.273012 2.811431 3.596165 4.772814 6.862116
2025-09-21 1.534115 1.829425 2.211362 2.763313 3.583863 4.847993 7.186577
2025-09-28 1.472291 1.765151 2.147638 2.707395 3.553965 4.889729 7.454487
2025-10-05 1.451462 1.753992 2.154865 2.752712 3.680810 5.200595 8.298413
2025-10-12 1.434451 1.746776 2.166512 2.804290 3.820764 5.550407 9.311077
2025-10-19 1.416533 1.738038 2.176203 2.854597 3.965319 5.933228 10.527751
2025-10-26 1.378596 1.700087 2.142391 2.836019 3.993081 6.102713 11.295068
2025-11-02 1.342741 1.663562 2.108790 2.815332 4.014753 6.262384 12.091660
2025-11-09 1.305822 1.624158 2.069187 2.782595 4.012097 6.372207 12.791437
2025-11-16 1.270911 1.586383 2.030380 2.748802 4.004476 6.470330 13.496477
2025-11-23 1.247925 1.564754 2.014492 2.750960 4.061870 6.714794 14.772260
2025-11-30 1.230284 1.550101 2.008258 2.768277 4.148408 7.037046 16.493613
2025-12-07 1.198030 1.513305 1.967145 2.725201 4.116629 7.083069 17.218532
2025-12-14 1.166697 1.477010 1.925609 2.679467 4.076447 7.104426 17.867222
2025-12-21 1.134950 1.439329 1.880819 2.626289 4.018208 7.075499 18.301145
2025-12-28 1.128315 1.438212 1.892109 2.669389 4.153703 7.547516 21.361352